Is it time to Google “Alternative Investments?”

We’re not big into analyzing the stock market. It’s not our thing, and there’s little evidence the people whose thing it actually  is are any good at it. However,  a +30% return by the S&P 500 last year is hard to ignore, and there’s been a collective focus among investors and those in the financial industry alike to answer the question most all of us are unable to accurately predict: Where will the stock market go from here? Is a market correction in the works, or are we going to be seeing “All Time Highs” on CNBC each week for the coming months?

Enter the week after MLK weekend (which has a history for falls in the markets), and the question has never been more relevant, with sell offs in emerging markets spilling over into the US Stock rally machine – with the S&P 500 dropping 2.6% percent (hardly a crash, but after the near perfect up trend in 2013, enough to scare quite a few people) while the Dow dropped an even worse 3.5% last week (and more losses today in a back and forth session). So are the bears right? Is this the start of a new down turn in the markets like we saw in 2009? Or is this just a normal pullback… the market taking a proverbial ‘breather’.

Which leads us to our title question…is it time to start thinking about protecting your portfolio a bit? Is it time to scale back some on stocks and consider some alternatives? Is it time to Google ‘Alternative Investments’ ?

There were likely more than a few people searching Google for “Alternative Investment Opportunities”  with the Dow down over 600 points in a few days.

But just what are they looking for, exactly?  Something which isn’t going down..that day?  Something which can make money if there is an extended down move? Something which has different return drivers than the stock market – thus don’t rely on stocks going up or down for their own performance? Hedge Funds? Commodities? Real Estate? Put option protection? Inverse ETFs? Gold coins? Diamonds? Art? Classic Cars? Wine?

Turns out the term ‘alternative investments’ is rather broad, with many so called alternatives (gold coins, wine) not things you’re going to see covered on the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Curriculum  or in the lineup of Alternative ETFs at a shop like ProShares.  Indeed, a Russel Investments survey found there are really just four types of ‘alternative investments’ as considered by institutional investors (source: CAIA).

What is an Alternative Investment

Now, these four types of investment may be considered “alternative” by many, but it seems they are labeled as such not because they zig when the stock markets zag; but more so because they just aren’t all that common in the typical investor portfolio. The numbers show us many hedge fund strategies and private equity, in particular, have a lot more stock market exposure than one would think with the moniker ‘alternative investment’.

Real Assets:

Now, real assets include mostly real estate, plus some land and infrastructure plays like timber or farmland. And real estate is definitely different than the stock market and squarely in the alternative investment camp – but unlike some other types of alternatives, real estate is pretty closely tied to how the global economy is performing (turns out people need money to buy houses and keep paying their mortgages and stuff, and that the money comes from their jobs, which are sort of tied to how well companies are doing, which is sort of tied to how company’s future prospects are, which is what their stock price is based on.. in part). Yep – real estate is alternative right up until it isn’t – at which point it is highly correlated with the stock market (see 2008).

Commodities:

Commodity markets sure seem like a slam dunk, no brainer alternative investment. After all, what does Soybean Oil have to do with Microsoft’s earnings and stock price? And most of the time, commodities are definitely an alternative investment doing things much differently than the stock and bond markets. Corn, Cattle, Natural Gas and Crude Oil all respond to price drivers such as: crop reports, weather (winter storms), international relations with the Middle East, and the basic economics of supply and demand.  But upon closer inspection – the stock market is somewhat infested with commodity based companies: the ExxonMobils,  Alcoas, ADMs, Monsantos of the world, and slew of other companies dependent on the farming and mining of commodities (Caterpillar, John Deere, etc). This blurring of lines between commodities and commodity companies causes some higher than normal correlation between commodities and traditional investments – especially if you are overweight in the energy or mining sector; but the real danger is something much simpler. The real danger to commodities as an alternative investment is the simple fact that we use more of these commodities in the boom times than we do in recessions. This became known as the risk on/risk off trade in 2008 and 2009 – when Crude Oil, Copper, Corn, and other commodities sold off right along with stocks; and then started to rise right along with them when the global economy saw signs of life. Commodities were decidedly not an alternative investment during the last crisis because of their tie in with the global economy.

Private Equity:

Private Equity is a bit of a hybrid. On the one hand, it is a bit of an odd investment to call ‘alternative’ – with equity right there in the name (semi joking). It’s investment strategy is to gain shares (equity) in privately held companies via outright purchases, debt deals, financing, and more; looking to off-load those shares to someone at a higher price at a later time, which sure sounds like the same model as the stock market. On the other hand, private equity is usually investing in private companies, not publicly traded – and may be in at the very beginning and able to capitalize on the rapid growth of a company in its early stages (which can decidedly be outside of whatever the general market is doing). The excellent book ‘The Invisible Hands’ by Steven Drobney does a good job of explaining the return driver for Private Equity – which he believes is an illiquidity premium, but we’ll sum up private equity with the words of tweeter extraordinaire Josh Brown:

Josh Brown Twitter

Hedge Funds:

And then there are the many layers of hedge fund categories which are marketed as alternative investments but which in actuality are just more sophisticated (or complex, or both) ways to access the return stream of private and public companies around the world (i.e. the same thing which drives the stock market).  In addition, many hedge funds rely on access to the credit markets to amplify their returns or even as part of their overall investment strategy, meaning any stock market decline caused by tightening credit markets is going to cause problems at the hedge funds as well.  All of these factors combined to leave nearly all hedge fund strategies, be it long/short equity or merger arbitrage or event driven, down in 2008 when the stock market crashed. Now, they still did better than the equity markets themselves… which makes them a better investment for your stock market exposure in our opinion – but nonetheless still gives you stock market exposure, the good and the bad.

Hedge Funds Table(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Source:  Market Folly

Managed Futures:

Which leads us to our favorite alternative investment,  an investment that wasn’t part of the “Major Alternative Asset Categories” per the Russel Investments survey mentioned earlier, as it is often considered at different times part of the commodities and/or hedge fund category. (which coincidentally are currently out of favor after the big 5 year up move in stocks).  We’re talking Managed Futures and their hedge fund cousin global macro hedge funds, of course.  These types of alternative investments actually do what one would expect out of an alternative – something different. You can see the 2008 performance in the table above and performance in many different crisis periods in the chart below.

But more important to us than how they have done in past market crisis periods, is why they did so – and that why comes back to a) What they Trade, b) How they Trade it, and c) When they Trade it.

For a) ‘What they Trade’:  managed futures trade futures markets on essentially all major market sectors – including commodities (grains, energy, metals, meats, softs), currencies, stock indices, and bonds – meaning they are not reliant on any one of those sectors (or a single company or sector within those sectors) to move a certain direction for their returns.

For b) ‘How they Trade it’: managed futures have the ability to go both long and short; meaning they can make just as much money from Crude Oil going from $120 to $90, as they can from Crude Oil going from $70 to $100.

And finally, for c) ‘When they Trade’: the majority of managed futures is systematic (a big different from Global Macro), meaning you aren’t relying on a single person or team of traders to identify a new trend up or down, the investment program is continuously analyzing the full portfolio of markets and entering into the trades automatically – insuring a lot of losses (such as current period) when the trends don’t materialize; but also insuring that the program is involved in the outlier trade when it does happen.

Crisis Period Performance(Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Managed Futures = DJCS Managed Futures Index
U.S. Stocks = S&P 500 Total Return *from Jun 1994 to June 2013

Absolute Return or Diversifier or Hedge

In the end, what type of alternative investment you’re looking for really depends on what you want it for. If you’re looking for returns, period – and not so concerned with how correlated it is to the stock market – the equity like returns of private equity or a market neutral or long/short equity hedge fund may be appealing.  If you want the returns, with no correlation to the stock market – a specialty managed futures program such as a short term program or Ag Trader or option trader may fit the bill.

But if you are looking for a portfolio diversifier or even outright hedge against your stock market exposure – then the grand majority of so called alternative investments just aren’t going to fit the bill. The grand majority, including private equity, hedge funds (most), real estate and commodities (in extreme examples) will show equity like returns during a crisis – because they are reliant on global demand, which can quickly go on strike as we saw in 2008.

You can buy put options on your stock portfolio, or exit your stock portfolio altogether to hedge against a stock decline – but those come with real costs such as premiums and more nuanced opportunity costs, the timing of selling out of stocks. And you can be in cash or bonds… but that is hardly alternative, that should already be part of a diversified portfolio.

Or you can look at managed futures as your diversifier, attempting to find a program which has the characteristics to allow for it to provide the crisis period performance when it is needed – while also having the ability to perform some in a rallying stock market in sort of a best of both worlds. An imperfect option on a market crash, but one which also allows for the ability to get paid on the hedge before it is needed – a sort of insurance policy that can pay for itself. Of course, the insurance policy could also lose before its needed and cost more than the simple put buying strategy – nobody said this was easy. It’s a tough task to be sure, but to the victors go the spoils… And you don’t have to go it alone, that’s why we’re here to help.

So as you head down whatever path Google leads you down after your fateful search on ‘Alternative Investments’, make sure you check the signposts to make sure you know what path you’re headed down. It may be marketed as an alternative path, but in fact a parallel path to the stock market journey you’re already on. And maybe you’re fine with that… Maybe that works for you. But if you’re after something truly different, something truly alternative; make sure you’re getting what your after with your ‘alternative investment’.

The 10 most read Managed Futures posts of 2013

Another year and another reflection back on the year that was.  Before we get too excited about 2014 and the endless possibilities, opportunities, and chances, we want to look back on the year that elected our CEO to the NFA board, the year we said goodbye to a turtle trader, and the year we suggested minting a billion dollar coin to the federal reserve. 2013 was anything but dull for Attain, and we wanted to review what you found the most interesting. Here’s the Top 10 list.

1. The Big Dogs of Physical Commodity Trading

Those of us in managed futures live in a world full of contracts, rules, regulations, and hardly a physical commodity in sight during trades. But there’s an underbelly to all of that activity called physical commodity trading that sometimes gets overlooked by those of us who merely trade the derivatives of all that oil, grains, and what not. And it’s HUGE. The 2012 combined annual revenue of their Top 10 comes out to be $1.3 Trillion (yes that’s trillion with a capital T).  But these names are hardly the household names of other billion dollar businesses like UPS or IBM or the like.

2. “No, Bloomberg, the managed futures industry is not a scam

We’re very pleased to see this article in the top 5 posts of 2013, considering it has only been published for 2 months. In early October, Bloomberg, befuddling to us, released a rancid article in which if you’re thoroughly educated about managed futures, and the full fee structure, makes the industry appear as though it’s a legal way to take peoples live savings. We’re not those people. Posting it on our blog wasn’t enough. Our “smackback” was also covered on FT Alphaville, as well as CTA Intelligence. Even though this blog post has reached thousands of readers, the Bloomberg article still gets republished by different media sources, citing slightly different statistics. It’s a long read, we know, but it’s worth your time. Trust us.

3. “Liz Cheval: From Turtle to Titan

With a heavy heart, we learned that legend, Liz Cheval, died of an aneurysm in March. Although this post is from 2011, we would only hope that this tragic event has brought attention to the influence she had on the industry, and breaking through the glass ceiling spearheading a career path for women of the next generation in this industry.

4. “Sortino Ratio: Are you calculating it wrong?

This article garnered much attention with the managed futures industry, even a response from proclaimed founder of the ratio itself. Red Rock Capital suggests the real definition of the Sortino ratio uses not the standard deviation of negative returns, but instead the ‘target downside deviation’, which is the deviations of the realized return’s underperformance from the target return.  What does that mean to the normal person who has trouble reading math equations?

5. “Mint that Coin

This post is almost a year old, but it’s as relevant as ever. As if anyone could ever forget, the government shutdown in October and the debt ceiling debate dominated media coverage in October. This article though is from the last fiscal cliff debate, not 10 months before the one in October, with the idea of minting a trillion dollar platinum coin so the president wouldn’t need congressional approval to raise the debt ceiling. It’s really quite interesting, as farfetched, and hypothetical as it is. But as we later found out this year, the Obama administration took it more seriously than we and anyone else thought. Got love those freedom of information acts.

6. “What Everybody Ought to Know about Managed Futures Asset Class Growth

It’s no secret that asset growth in managed futures has grown exponentially since 2008 and its crisis period performance. However, the number most used is BarclayHedge’s databse includes Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund in the world. Although they dabble in managed futures, we wouldn’t consider them to be in the same category as other CTA’s. We take them out of the picture to get a better representation.

7. “The Surprising Connection that the Worst Performing ETF’s Share

Upon surfing the interwebs  for useful financial commentary and statistics, we stumbled upon the Worst 10 ETF performer’s YTD from Index Universe… and can you guess what most of them have in common? Gold.  As if that was much of a surprise, but -56% YTD performance is just brutal. Five of the ten worst performers in 2013 are Gold ETF’s (4 of those Gold Miners ETF’s which we’ve discussed before here), two are Silver ETF’s (which from a commodity standpoint is highly correlated to gold), with the remaining three short VIX ETF’s.

8. “It Takes Two to Contango

Crude Oil is a dominant market when it comes to content in the futures industry, and this year was no different. While the energy market tends to display what we in the biz call “Contango,” Crude Oil displayed highest level of Backwardation (reverse Contango, if you will) in more than 15 years.

9. “Take a Look: Averaging 48k Monthly Managed Futures Returns

What does the average CTA look like? This great question was brought to us by a prospective client, and while it seems simple on the face of it, the question is actually a bit more complex, and worth a detailed explanation. This got us thinking of the question a different way that our database can understand: what is the average monthly performance, gain, loss, drawdown amount, and so forth across all CTAs. Without further ado, here’s the stats on over 48,698 monthly returns for 2,603 CTA programs going back to 1977.

10. “The ‘Problem’ with Liquid Alternative – in one nice Table

Adding ‘alternatives’ to your portfolio has never been as easy as today with the plethora of so called ‘liquid alternatives’, or mutual funds specializing in alternative investments such as managed futures. And the marketers have never had such an easy time separating the naive from their money in their bids to raise money for these funds. Enter an old five-pager by the Principal Group we dug up which explains how to utilize 15 different hedge fund strategies in portfolio construction. It has all you would ever need to know about these highly complex investments, dedicating 4 to 6 sentences to each one! Are you picking up the sarcasm?

Morningstar’s Nadia Papagiannis Demystifies Alternatives:

The highlight of last week’s Alternative Investments Conference for us was definitely Morningstar’s Nadia Papagiannis’ presentation  titled, “Demystifying Alternatives: The ABCs of Alternative Assets, Strategies and Vehicles.

To be a speaker at these conferences, you essentially have to be an expert in the business and we have to hand it to Mrs. Papagiannis, she really knows her stuff. She not only understands the complexities of managed futures, but a vast array of alternative strategies and assets, making her an ideal speaker. 

1. “Alternative in name, doesn’t mean Alternative in practice.”

The overall theme of her talk was simply, “know what you’re investing in.” It seems like an elementary statement, but many investors see the name “Alternative” and think it’s the answer to a diversified portfolio.  Putting it more bluntly – you need to know what’s under the hood before investing, not just what’s on the label. Papagiannis astutely points out that “Alternatives” term has increasingly been thrown around since the 2008 crisis and that if you don’t understand what the return drivers are, you shouldn’t be allocating your money into that investment in the first place (that’s Investing 101). On the most basic level, she defines Alternative investing as:

“1. An Alternative Strategy (the way you’re investing)

2. Alternative Investments (what you’re investing in)”

More specifically, she provides a definition of a “good alternative investment.”

“…is one that produces positive risk-adjusted returns (over a reasonable time frame) and exhibits a lower correlation to traditional investments.”

2. Perceptions of Alternatives
[Read more...]

Alternative Investment Conference Spotlights Managed Futures

We just couldn’t get enough of the conference action last week with the NIBA and the CTA Expo, and spent the beginning of this week exploring what the “Alternative Investments Conference” has to offer. Here are some highlights from day one yesterday:

In her conference opening presentation, Demystifying Alternatives: The ABCs of Alternative Assets, Strategies and Vehicles, Nadia Papagiannis of Morningstar Inc. suggested that alternative investments should receive a larger portion of portfolio allocation (we covered that a while back, why you’re not happy):

 “Five percent is really not going to make a difference” said  Ms. Papagiannis on Monday, “but 20% will start to make a difference.”

“If I were doing it, I would pick an equity long-short strategy, a managed-futures strategy and a market-neutral strategy as a kind of bond substitute, and I would equal-weight them into the portfolio,” said Papagiannis. “Prior to 2008, a lot of investors were too heavy into equities, and now a lot of advisers are telling me their clients are too heavy into bonds.”

As part of a panel discussion entitled The Alternative Asset Allocation Model, Steve Medina, Head of Global Asset Allocation & Senior Portfolio Manager at John Hancock suggested advisers should look to balance their portfolio better by funding an alternatives allocation half from equities and half from bonds.

“If you fund alternatives 100% from bonds, you’ll get better returns but get an increase in risk,” said Medina. “If you fund 100% from equities, you will reduce the overall risk, but there’s a cost to that and you will hold back a little bit of total return over time. Therefore, start with the concept of funding half from equities and half from fixed income.”

Due diligence was another popular topic on day one. According to David Lafferty, an investment strategist at Natixis Global Asset Management, most investors follow one of two different approaches with regard to due diligence.

“There are those people who are looking for great returns, and they will pay a lot of attention to a track record even if they don’t fully understand the strategy. And there are those who will like the story and the strategy, and they don’t care as much about the track record,” said Lafferty.”

Members of the Attain team are over there again today for Day 2 and we’ll bring you more tomorrow.

 

Chatting with Gary Fencik- Meeting of the Alternative Minds

While attending the CFA Conference in Chicago, we had the distinct pleasure of meeting with Gary Fencik (yes, good old #45 from the 1985 Chicago Bears Super Bowl-winning team) who is a partner of the firm and Head of Business Development at Adams Street Partners, LLC. This interview is a little removed from the conference, but good things come to those who wait, and in a rare turn of events, we’re writing about an alternative investment that’s NOT managed futures with an expert in his field who also happens to be a former player of our all-time favorite football team. Cut us a little slack, eh?

Welcome to the world of Private Equity (PE). Though traditionally an investment offered to only the incredibly wealthy through a network of finance professionals, PE has been thrust into the spotlight repeatedly during the Republican Presidential primary, with continued reference to Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s work with PE firm Bain Capital, but outside of the knowledge that he invested in companies, most people have no idea what, exactly was being done. Essentially, it involves raising capital privately (read: off-exchange) to invest in a company. PE is typically characterized by a long term investing timeframe, a lack of liquidity, and high risk. These investments can be a 10+ year commitment, which is why those in the know refer to that investment point as the point of “losing control.” As such, with a countless number of direct offerings and 1,000’s of funds pooling investor capital worldwide, the core principles of alternative investment allocation strategies hold true even in the PE world.  With hundreds of billions of dollars being invested in PE worldwide, and often in incredibly diverse investing environments among a wide variety of companies, it is clear why the expertise of Adams Street (a leader in PE for nearly 40 years) makes sense to employ.

As the conversation moved from a high level discussion on Adams Street and their PE work, we quickly found common ground on several topics that tie directly back to the core of why alternatives and the ever changing task of investing in them.

For many investors, understanding the need for the diversification value found in alternatives is easy. The perspective through the rearview mirror reflects what many in our space have come to see as a universal truth- that past performance cannot predict the future, but your best bet is to spread your risk and exposure across non-correlated asset classes. For us, the solution was managed futures, Fencik, however, became a strong believer in PE. After opening an office in London in the late 1990s to go global, Fencik and his team found that the rise of Asia had changed the PE landscape, and introduced a new set of challenges. He told us that he believes in the need to work with locals, to make sure you have the right tools, data and people on the ground doing the due diligence, reaffirming some of the sentiments expressed by Sam Zell.

As it relates to portfolio construction, Fencik recommended diversification across different sub-classes and emphasized manager selection as the most important part of evaluating an investment. Whether it’s a giant fund or a small venture, an investment in the US or abroad, the quality of the manager remains most important. He looks for a repeatable process to separate the lucky from the skilled (is there an echo in here?), and remains wary of style drift by an investment team (again, choose your team wisely). Firms tend to raise capital based on past performance, so if they have underperformed since, you need to identify what changes have been made, how the manager is performing against their peer group (not all strategies are built for all environments), as well as whether the size and style of trading are still compatible with your investment objectives.

As huge Bears fans and past season ticket holders, any conversation with Gary Fencik cannot go without a few questions for one of the former Monsters of Midway. One topic that has always been the topic of debate for outsiders is the notion that professional athletes don’t know how to manage their finances.  Fencik unfortunately agrees with this statement, stating that most players have no concept of how short their career will be. As a Yale grad and financial professional, he fully believes in educating athletes on their finances and goes as far as to commit to the NFL’s yearly week long seminar for current and recently retired players where he speaks about managing finances and looking at the longer term picture.

His advice for pro athletes is to spend time with their accountants to help know their net income now, to set a current budget and one for a post NFL career.  Finally he strongly encourages active athletes to network and take advantage of their celebrity status. If a current player asks for a meeting with the CEO of a company, he’ll get the meeting, but 2-3 years removed from the league, he’ll have to fight the HR fight.  Fencik also named at least 10 players from his teams who are now coaches… even though none of them initially aspired to be coaches.

Finally, we asked him about his best and worst personal investments; generally speaking, this is one of our favorite questions to ask anyone, because everyone usually has a good story. The worst investment decision happened to occur while he was playing football – he put money into a seafood delivery service. His best investment was in his college roommate: the founder of Summit Partners (one of the benefits of going to Yale, right?).

Our chat with Fencik was definitely an interesting one. Forget the fan component for a second- it was just nice to talk to someone in alternatives who gets it. Fencik understands the true diversification value of an alternative investment, and while we don’t see ourselves persuading him to abandon the PE world, we look forward to seeing managed futures become his second favorite asset class.

The Why Alternatives? Wrap Up

We’ve had a couple of days now to recover from a week of conference coverage, and we’ve found ourselves reflecting upon the value provided by each conference, along with common threads between the arguably diverse audiences.

CFA provided some excellent macro insight, particularly regarding how to apply that information to portfolio construction for investors. The high level conversation not only served as a source of education, but as a means of idea creation. The group was distinctively focused on thought leadership. NAPFA, while also largely attracting RIAs, simply nailed it on one of our favorite topics- how to best serve the client. The group exhibited a strong dedication to client service in addition to developing solutions that would better enhance the investing experience, with the backbone behind it all an unwavering belief in acting with integrity. SALT was definitely a different crowd, replete with hedge fund managers and institutional investors, with much of the conversation centered on how the macro climate was going to impact the markets, specifically, over the course of the next several years, and an in-depth look at strategy development and execution.

Without a doubt, the conferences were hotbeds of valuable information and perspectives, but perhaps more valuable still was the ability to see commonalities among the three unique events. Three things really stuck out. For starters, everyone is worried about Europe, and nobody has a clue what’s coming next. It may have been easy to look past the Euro Crisis over the last couple of months, with seeming indifference radiating out of the markets for quite some time, but in the background, no one thinks that everything is ok, and no one can say with any confidence that it will be. The general tone would seem more indicative of a “wait and see” mentality; people are just holding out hope that they can eke out whatever profits they can before that other shoe drops. This nervous tension, to us, further amplifies concerns about that fast approaching fiscal cliff and the political shenanigans it promises to deliver. If the markets are simply waiting for a definitive reason to run wild, that, in our minds, could very well be it.

The second common thread comes back to risk management. Risk is what everything came down to throughout the entirety of each of the conferences, so much so that when Troy Gayeski of SkyBridge quipped that investors also cared about returns on one of the panels, the idea nearly seemed foreign to the overarching conversation.  In some ways, this is good news. It means that people are trying to stay away from the poison mentality of chasing returns. However, our hope is that we don’t completely swing from one extreme to another; the best results, in our opinion, occur when you hold return relative to risk, and tailor your investment approach to your individual risk tolerance. We’re also hoping that people start getting more of the facts on managed futures as an asset class instead of turning to the mutual fund world as a benchmark, or resting their concerns on false assumptions related to the wide array of available strategies. It’s enough to give us heart palpitations listening to some of the uninformed perspectives out there.

Finally, while there are obviously stark differences in opinion on a wide host of issues across the entirety of finance, what was most impressive was the collaborate atmosphere we saw at each event. While technically, most of these folks are in competition over market share in one capacity or another, conversations had to do with learning, growing, and bettering the industry as a whole. Regulatory banter was not couched in laments about costs imposed, but instead, their impact on the markets and the investor. Political back and forth wasn’t about party lines, but what we’d see happen to the way various investments operate. Protection of assets overshadowed assets under management, and while marketing spin was certainly out in full force, candor won the day. It’s easy to cast the financial world into the role of the villain these days, but the undercurrent of fully acknowledged responsibility at these events make the dichotomy ring a little bit hollow.

All in all, fantastic job to NAPFA, CFA and SkyBridge for putting on stellar events- and kudos to the community for making them a great experience.

Attain presents Why Alternatives?: CFA Interview with Scott Welch

Scott Welch, Co-Founder and Senior Managing Director of Fortigent, LLC presented at CFA, and we had a chance to talk with him afterwards. Fortigent provides “wealth management solutions and consulting services to independent investment advisors, banks and trust companies, and break-away brokers,” and his presentation, “The Evolution of Alternative Investing: New Approaches, New Thinking, New Conversations,” was as “Why NOT Alternatives“ as it gets.  One exciting note for us was that Managed Futures is “in his bucket of alternatives” and that his outlook is optimistic about the future of the space (despite the current difficult environment)!

Welch said that part of the problem for managed futures in the current trading environment is that the market is being manipulated. The influence of central bankers is getting in the way of the traditional long to medium term trend based managers allowing for the best opportunities on shorter time horizons.  In many cases the signals may be good, but manipulation is killing what would otherwise be successful trades.

His market outlook for alternatives, in general, is that they will play important role in portfolios, especially during volatile market regimes. In fact, Welch recommends allocations as high as 30-50% to alternatives.

As investors move more and more toward alternatives, it will be important to think in a “new way” about the markets. Specifically, Long / Short Equity should be considered more of a dynamic stock allocation vs an alternative strategy; investors and their advisors should customize their portfolios with respect to 1. Risk, 2. Return, 3. Liquidity, 4. Fees.; and finally investors and their advisors should be open to a more tactical approach to alternative investing.

Welch emphasized that market regimes change and placed a great deal of importance on portfolio allocation strategy as well as setting realistic investor expectations through up front and ongoing education. In his opinion, the main obstacle holding back RIAs from investing in alternatives is not due to a lack of investor education on alternatives.  Instead, he says, RIAs know what they are, but are gun shy after being burned by LPs (limited partnerships) during the global financial crisis (fraud, gates, etc).  That said, advisor aversion to LP’s is no longer a viable reason to avoid alternatives, however the due diligence requirements in the space have increased.

We also had a chance to talk with Welch about Fortigent being purchased by LPL Financial. Fortigent and their 100 employees have joined a firm that provides technology, brokerage, and investment advisory services to over 12,500 financial advisors.  Welch says that Fortigent will retain its autonomy despite the merger, as the LPL investment team has very specific mandate.

At Fortigent, the investment team remains consistent. They have 10 employees in research that are actively looking for new and unique strategies, which, once approved, are chosen by the advisors. Being able to provide the seal of approval by their 10 person team is the value that Fortigent adds.

We also asked him about alternative investment mutual funds: he thinks there are too many starting too fast, requiring more belief than proof in each product. In his view, due to shorter track records, there is a need to focus greater due diligence on operations, the team, the underlying strategies, etc. This is clearly a strong focus for the firm as Fortigent brought on 20-25 new alternative investment mutual funds last year, and in total the firm has invested two to three billion dollars in AI mutual funds.

The above statements were echoed as it relates to managed futures mutual funds as well; due to the short public track records, more belief than proof in each product is required. This creates a need to focus due diligence efforts on operations, management team, underlying strategies, etc. Scott believes that the industry will continue to grow alongside the regulatory environment adjustments.

The last question, and one our favorites, revolved around the large vs. small manager debate.  The data we’ve published (here and here)  supports the fact that the larger a manager gets the lower his expected rates of return (Harding admits it it here).  Welch agrees, stating that smaller managers have proven that they can be more nimble, invest in less traditional markets, etc; however the bottom line is that investor behavior is not following the talk.  Data flows support that investors are willing to trade enterprise strength for lower performance.

We greatly appreciate the opportunity to have met Mr. Welch and his continued advocacy of managed futures as a core part of investor asset allocation strategy.