23 Commodity, Equity, and Currency Markets since the 2009 Low

Markets Since 09It seems like only yesterday we had 700 point down moves in the Dow, Lehman going bankrupt, and billions and billions in bailouts being handed out as the stock market made new lows seemingly every week, dragging down most commodity markets with it. But can you believe it’s actually been 5 years, with the low of the crisis happening 5 years ago yesterday – March 9, 2009. The first 3 years sure went by quickly… as we didn’t really know we were in the clear, and now the last two have been a blur of new highs in the stock market seemingly every week.  My how things change in a hurry.

Now, that was the low in the US stock market – other markets like Crude Oil bottomed before then, and some like Wheat bottom after that – but it’s hard to find many losers among the basket of markets we track since that fateful day 5 years ago. Everything on our list is up since then besides the US Dollar and Japanese Yen (imagine that, the two economies which went nuclear in terms of providing capital to the markets).

Some items of note include Copper outpacing Gold almost 2 to 1… (funny we don’t recall any stories about Copper vending machines over the past 5 year); Cotton surging over 140%, and Crude Oil the only other market not a stock index having more than doubled with gains of 124% (of course that would have been tough to realize with the cost of carry and negative roll yield.) (Source: All data in the chart to the left is cash data provided from CSI.)

Meanwhile, Bonds have managed to stay positive despite 5 years of predictions of rising rates and debt ceiling debates; while Natural Gas somehow managed to get into the black after spending most of the 5 year period worse than the March 9th, 2009 low.  And most impressive of all, of course, is US stocks, where the S&P has even become a bit of a third wheel despite more than doubling, because of the high flying Nasdaq and Russell 2000 which are both better by more than 225%. Wow – why didn’t Bernanke just come out and tell Americans to buy stocks, on margin, on March 9th – and guarantee against any losses…

The question is – which markets will be the top performers over the next  five years. Will we see a five year replay of the start of 2014, where last year’s laggards are this year’s stars (so far), or will history repeat itself in one of the greatest bull market continuations of all time (not sure we can count on that…unless Bernanke wants to come out of retirement and make that guarantee). To remind us just how things can change from one 5 year period to the next, we decided to use March 9th, 2009 as a marker and look at the 5 year returns of the main asset classes both leading up to that point, and since that point. You can see a tale of two five year periods, with the two Asset Class scoreboards almost an exact inversion of one another.

2004 2009 Asset Class2009 Present
(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Sources: Managed Futures = Newedge CTA Index,
Bonds = S&P/CitiGroup International Treasury Bond Ex-U.S. Index
Hedge Funds= Dow Jones Credit Suisse
Commodities = UBS Commodity Index (DJC,) Real Estate = iShares DJ Real Estate ETF (IYR);
World Stocks = MSCI ACWI ex US Index, US Stocks = SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)










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Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.

The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex, and is not intended as investment advice, or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.

*The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.

The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on Attain’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by Attain, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.

It should be noted that past market performance is not indicative of future market movement.No market data or other information is warranted by Attain Capital Management as to completeness or accuracy, express or implied, and is subject to change without notice.

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Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.