January may have been a decent start our favorite asset class, but half of the proxies we use to track various asset classes started the year at a full sprint. Cash was cash, bonds were down (continuing the downtrend), and the rest fell into two groups: stocks, commodities, and real estate rose in the 4-5% range, while both hedge funds and managed futures ended the month up around 1.5%. (Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.) As tough as it can be at times to keep waiting, this is how managed futures is supposed to operate – modest gains (or, as we saw last year, losses) when times are good for everyone else, and outsized gains when everyone else is scrambling for the life preservers.
Managed Futures = Newedge CTA Index, Cash = 13 week T-Bill rate,
Bonds = Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), Hedge Funds = DJCS Core Hedge Fund Index
Commodities = iShares GSCI ETF (GSG), Real Estate = iShares DJ Real Estate ETF (IYR)
World Stocks = MCSI World Index (ex USA), US Stocks = S&P 500