We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again… We’re not in the business of predicting where markets will go, or what Manged Futures performance will be like in 2015. However, that’s not to say there aren’t lessons to be learned and knowledge to be gleaned in looking back over the past year, analyzing market conditions, volatility, and other factors, and then discussing the outlook for those factors in the new year and beyond.
Our 2014 review starts in the obvious place, rehashing Managed Futures come back year, where it posted its best performance since 2008. But we quickly find it wasn’t a “textbook” volatility expansion / stock market crisis period environment that gave Managed Futures its boost. In fact, 64% of futures markets actually experienced a decrease in market volatility, per our measure of the average true range.
How did they perform so well, when the ranges of many markets declined? We dig into that question and analyze the much different volatility expansion in the second half of the year, as well as analysis of the US Dollar move and how beneficial that was to Managed Futures; before switching our gaze to the year ahead.
Should people expect a repeat? What markets might see volatility expand or contract this time around? What is going to happen to the energy and US Dollar trends that are still pushing through into 2015? Download our Managed Futures 2014 Review & 2015 Outlook for our full analysis on the asset class.